Implied Odds – Basic

Implied Odds In No-Limit Texas Holdem, The Basics

Pot-odds are one of the building blocks of Texas Holdem Poker strategy. By comparing your chances of making the best hand with the ‘price’ being offered, you are able to assess whether calling a bet will show a profit over time. The concept of ‘Implied odds’ takes this idea one step further. By factoring in the extra bets you may win on future betting rounds when assessing whether to make the initial call.

This article explains how implied odds work in No-Limit Texas Holdem Poker Games, providing some common examples of situations in which this concept becomes important. We also look at common mistakes in calculating your implied odds – both before and after the flop.

A classic example of the use of implied odds in Texas Holdem poker is while holding a small pair before the flop. Sitting in late position you see a raise and two calls ahead of you and look down to see a pair of 4’s. This is unlikely to be the best hand, with opponents holding a mixture of over-cards and higher pairs. However, approximately one in 8 times you will hit a set on the flop – in which case you stand to win a big pot.

So, even though calling the pre-flop raise itself has a negative expectation over time, the large pot you might win those rare times you make trip 4’s make up for this. Here your implied odds make the call profitable, even though if betting were to stop after the pre-flop round the call would show a loss.

Implied odds also come into play after the flop and turn. For example you hold a suited-ace and face two opponents after the turn, with two of your suit on board. One opponent bets and the 2nd calls, you calculate your pot-odds as being 3/1 – less than the 4.3/1 required to make this a call based on the immediate odds alone. However, knowing that your opponents are unlikely to fold on the river to a small bet, you estimate that your implied odds are actually higher. If you can get a half-pot bet called at the river then your ‘real price’ on the turn may be closer to 5/1 than 4/1 – showing a profit over time.

The danger, particularly with newer players, in factoring implied odds into their poker decisions is that this becomes an ‘excuse’ to call too many bets. This is particularly the case when the hand you are trying to make is not the nuts. For example, calling a bet to hit the low end of a straight due to your expectation of winning a large pot could end up with you losing your chips instead.

Failing to factor in those times you will not win any extra bets is the single largest error in implementing implied-odds strategy into your game. Using the example of the small pair it will not be the case that you double your stack every time you make trips. Opponents will often fold before the river, or may even outdraw you with a higher set or a flush.

To account for these times you need to ensure that your implied odds are actually a little higher than those you need when looking only at the numbers. When holding a small pair you should look to get 12/1 or better on your initial call, even though you will make a set more often than this. With the flush example the ability level of your opponents will make a difference to the implied-odds you are receiving, since the potential for a flush will be obvious for all to see.

Part #2 in our series on implied-odds will look at some of the significant factors you can use to judge the real odds on offer in each situation, and how cash games and online poker tournaments require implied-odds situations to be treated slightly differently.