Calculating Pot Odds

Maths in poker is a hotly debated topic and many players shy away from using or even learning maths. This is because it is either too hard, they weren’t good at maths in school or they don’t believe it has a great deal of relevance. Before I show you my simple steps to calculating pot odds, it is important to understand why so many poker players rely on maths when making their decisions.

In long sessions of play, many decisions have to be made. Should I chase the flush or should I fold? Many, like me when I first started, rely on gut-instinct to ascertain whether a decision is “worth it”. Through reading and playing tens of thousands of hands, you learn that making mathematical decisions can improve your profit considerably. If you consistently make decisions where the odds are against you, then the law of averages will eventually kick in. Your poor mathematical decisions in the long term will either restrict your winnings or deepen your losses.

The two methods I am going to show you, step by step, about calculating pot odds are simple for any maths level.

• Method 1: Count the amount of outs you have (cards you need to complete your hand) and multiply that number by 2 and add one. For example if you have an open ended straight draw and you have 8 outs. 8 x 2 = 16. 16 + 1 = 17%. Simple!
• Method 2: Number of outs, divided by cards left in the deck, multiplied by 100. Using the same example after the turn, 8 / 47(52 minus your 2 cards minus 3 flop cards) x100. 84/47 = 0.170(3dp) x 100 = 17%. As you see this is the same as the other method but a little bit more accurate.

Ok, so now we have our percentage chance of winning the hand…what do we do now? We work out how much is in the pot and how much the size of the bet is. Do not include the bet in the size of the pot. Using the same example…the bet is $20 on the flop and there is $80 in the pot do you call? 17% works out to be a bit worse that 5 to 1, and 80/20 is 4 to 1. Therefore the money you can win is less than the odds that you are given so you should not call. If the bet was $10 into a $60 pot then you would call because you are getting 6 to 1 on your money when the odds of you hitting your card are 5 to 1.

Now that we know how to calculate our odds and what to do in the situation of possibly calling a bet, here is a scenario from the beginning.

You are dealt Ah5h, the turn card has been dealt and the board shows 7d 9h Kh 2c. There is $300 in the pot and an opponent bets $50. Should you call?

• Step One: we have 9 outs (13 hearts minus our 2 whole cards minus 2 hearts on the board). 9 x 2 + 1 = 19%
• Step Two:work out the pot size in relation to the bet. 300 / 50 = 6. 19% = approx 5 to 1 and you are getting 6 to 1 on your money. Make the call.